Progress in Afghanistan: Level of Cheating is "Normal by International Standards"

The Afghanistan presidential election held on August 20th is still under scrutiny. The Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) recently released a report detailing the findings of their election investigation. The ECC claims that almost 33% of the votes cast for the president are fraudulent, that's one in every three. 

Mr Karzai has claimed that allegations of massive fraud were the invention of a hostile international press. He remains firmly in denial about the level of cheating, which he still maintains was small and “normal by international standards”.

Unfortunately, there is no simple fix to this situation as the story just keeps getting muddier:

1. While 4.3 million legitimate votes cast, 1.3 million "dodgy" votes found their way in the ballot boxes and had to be excluded.
2. The audit preformed by the ECC reveals Mr. Karzai obtained less than 50% of the vote which, by rule, should result in a run-off election with runner-up Mr. Abdullah.
3. Karzai rejects the authority of the U.N.-backed ECC, claiming that the Independent Election Commission (IEC) has the final authority in this matter. The IEC is a group that has been appointed by and in turn loyal to Karzai.
4. Karzai may still appeal to the Afghan Supreme Court for a decision, a court which is filled with judges he selected, bringing about another loyalty issue.
5. If the court does rules in favor of a run-off election, the country is expected to have extremely low voter turn-out rates in fear of Taliban violence in combination with the upcoming heavy winter snow.

“If anything it will just allow the fraudsters to work out how to cheat more subtly,” a UN official admits.

Only three options seem to remain:

• Look the other way and pretend none of this happened.
• Tear the system down AGAIN to rebuild it ourselves.
• Funnel money to a militant group so that they will overthrow the current leadership group and then we can place a new regime.
• Offer Karzai undisclosed incentive to agree to a run-off election, which he is fairly confident he will win handily anyway.

Take your pick. Shenanigans.


Read Detailed Article at The Economist
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Update:

It would appear that option 4 has been explored. President Obama has extended his gratitude to Mr. Karzai for agreeing to a run-off election. Even with a direct race between Karzai and Abdullah, few doubt Karzai will remain victorious, because of reasons mentioned above (fear, weather).

"There's an Afghan saying: 'The donkey stays the same - only the saddle changes," Martin Baraki said. "The election swindle will drive a lot of people into the arms of the insurgents."

The question: What was the incentive offered to Karzai?

Deutsche Welle Run-Off Election Report